Welcome to the Travel Forecasting Guidelines for Selecting Travel Forecasting Methods (TFGuide).

The purpose of TFGuide is to evaluate the properties of travel forecasting methods and their value in addressing transportation planning requirements for specific plans and programs. This tool provides the first aspect of an overall forecasting process, which typically includes these five:

  • Properties of the forecasting methods
  • Adequacy of current observed data to test the methods
  • Successful testing of the methods to demonstrate their grasp of current travel patterns
  • Reasonableness of inputs (demographics, infrastructure and operations) used in the forecasts
  • Plausibility of the forecasts for the proposed project

TFGuide is not intended to inform users about data assembly, testing, or evaluation of the travel forecasting modeling process, but instead is focused on identifying the preferred forecasting methods that can meet the indicated planning requirements and produce the desired performance metrics while accounting for resource constraints. TFGuide provides resources and recommendations for evaluating travel forecasting methods that are prioritized based on how well they meet the user-defined planning needs and constraints. Note that the timeline and cost estimates used in TFGuide only include analysis work, and some plans and projects may require costs for non-analytical work. The Federal Transit Administration suggests organizations seeking Capital Investment Grants contact FTA to discuss forecasting methods.